AGP Executive Report

Labor Market Signals: U.S. job openings jumped to the highest level since May 2024, but hiring cooled as economic uncertainty tied to the Iran war weighed on confidence. Manufacturing Pulse: Kazakhstan’s April PMI edged up, hinting at stabilization, though employment and output kept sliding. Cocoa & Chocolate Supply: Barry Callebaut unveiled a “Focus for Growth” plan to stabilize operations amid cocoa volatility and shift toward higher-value chocolate. Protein Ingredients Pressure: A whey protein shortage is driving sharp price spikes and forcing food brands to reformulate and rethink pricing. Trade & Tariffs: UK Fairtrade raised alarms over proposed temporary tariff cuts on over 100 food items, warning it could disrupt pay arrangements for cocoa farmers. Food Security & Fisheries: Ghana’s fisheries minister called for stronger regional cooperation and practical reforms to improve Africa’s agrifood systems. Packaging/Policy: England’s EPR and food-waste collection rollout is accelerating, with officials citing broad consumer readiness to join circular schemes. Corporate Moves in Food Retail: General Mills agreed to sell its Häagen-Dazs shop business in Mainland China via a licensing deal, reshaping its China retail strategy. Legal Heat on Ultra-Processed Foods: San Francisco filed a major lawsuit targeting major food and beverage makers over claims they engineered a public health crisis.

China Food Delivery Crackdown: China’s regulators now require food delivery apps to verify restaurants’ licenses and physical addresses, targeting “ghost kitchens” after cases of forged permits and outsourced orders raised food safety alarms. Cold-Chain Packaging Focus: A new look at cold chain growth argues packaging can’t stay “set and forget” as temperature-sensitive logistics scales for food, pharma and DTC delivery. Dairy Spotlight: World Milk Day (June 1) spotlights milk’s nutrition and the dairy sector’s role in livelihoods, with a campaign centered on women farmers. Sustainable Ingredients & Alcohol: Intact Regenerative opened an industrial facility using low-impact pulse extraction to make functional plant proteins and low-carbon alcohol. Food Prices & Fuel Pressure: South Africa’s diesel shock is framed as a supply-chain inflation driver, not just a pump problem. Supermarket Competition Watch: New Zealand’s Commerce Commission says supermarket competition shows little change, even as regulatory reforms aim to loosen the duopoly. Workforce & Food Access: Farmworker advocates warn heat stress is a growing risk for migrant workers, with housing and meal access still under strain. Japan Tax Move: Japan’s ruling parties are coordinating a limited food and beverage consumption tax cut for April 2027, aiming for a 1% rate (or possibly 0%).

Low-Carbon Supply Deals: Dow and Univar Solutions signed a long-term agreement to distribute Dow’s Decarbia low-carbon products with third-party verified PCF data across beauty, home care, food, pharma and industrial markets, aiming to help customers cut Scope 3 emissions. QSR Value Wars: A new look at two years of $5-style promotions suggests “value” is pulling traffic but not loyalty, with most major chains seeing weaker customer retention since May 2024. Restaurant Financing Stress: Restaurant operators are facing a real funding crunch as merchant cash advance loans can be costly and keep payments due even when sales slip, pushing some toward bankruptcy. Snack Manufacturing Expansion: SunOpta (Refresco) is expanding better-for-you fruit snack production at its Omak, Washington site, adding $25M and boosting capacity by 25% to meet rising demand. Food System Risk Warning (UK): UK food policy experts warn the country is “sleepwalking into a food crisis” as climate, inflation, geopolitics and fragile supply chains squeeze resilience. Ag Inputs Under Pressure (South Africa): Wheat farmers in South Africa say Iran-linked fuel and fertilizer shocks are doubling costs and threatening output and profits. Rice Procurement Move (Philippines): The Philippines’ NFA plans higher buying prices for palay (wet P22/kg, dry P27/kg) and earlier, more aggressive procurement to protect farmers from rising inputs. Agri Reform Focus (Georgia): Georgia’s agriculture reform emphasizes stronger monitoring plus better access to knowledge and extension services to improve farm project success. Food Safety Oversight (US): The FDA launched a pilot for abbreviated one-day inspections at lower-risk facilities, raising questions about how the program will evolve.

Iran-war travel squeeze: Southeast Asia’s tourism hit as higher jet fuel costs and ceasefire uncertainty drive flight cancellations and pricier tickets, with families pulling back and crowds thinning. Philippines–Vietnam ties: Vietnam’s To Lam visits Manila to deepen cooperation on investment, trade, maritime security—and explicitly flags food security, education and tourism. Food safety & health: A study links climate change to rising antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella, raising concerns for harder-to-treat foodborne illness; meanwhile, beekeepers face a new threat as the US plans to close the Beltsville bee research lab just as varroa-driven losses strain pollination. Trade & market access: India–Oman CEPA takes effect, granting duty-free access for most tariff lines and immediate cuts for items including honey, bakery goods, dairy and processed foods. Agri-food operations: Singapore’s SFA tenders two vegetable-farm land parcels under 20-year leases and loosens diversification rules; Canada pushes sensor-based freshness tracking to cut its massive food waste. Industry economics: Netherlands reports Q1 turnover growth in accommodation and food services at 2.2%—the slowest in five years—while retail food sales rise 3.2% in April. Supply chain pressure: Commercial LPG prices jump in India, lifting operating costs for hotels and restaurants. Beef trade: Australia forms a live cattle export taskforce to improve animal health, welfare and long-term market access with Indonesia.

Food Safety & Authenticity: The UK Food Standards Agency flagged 73 meat-and-fish products last year with undeclared species after DNA testing, including pizzas and curries with different meats than labeled—another reminder that “what’s on the label” is still a live issue for food crime. Livestock Supply Shock: A New World screwworm threat is spreading across Mexico and Central America, with the U.S. already tightening cattle imports and ramping sterile-fly production as beef prices stay near record highs. Regulatory Simplification: India’s Centre urged states/UTs to speed up legal metrology reforms, shifting weights-and-measures compliance from licensing to registration to cut burdens while keeping enforcement against fraud. Farm Support & Resilience: Tripura wants flooding added to PMFBY “local natural calamity” guidelines, while the Philippines’ DA-Davao distributed P13m in cash aid to thousands of rice and corn farmers to cushion rising costs. Food System Pressure from Fertilizer: With Iran-linked supply disruptions lifting fertilizer prices, Senegalese farmers are leaning harder on organic compost and manure to protect yields and food security. Retail & Local Food Economy: A new Sunday market in Beccles drew up to 1,000 visitors, boosting artisan food and street-food traders as local demand grows.

Dairy Value-Chain Push: Nigeria’s Livestock Development ministry says it’s planning skills, finance and cooperative support to create opportunities for 37,000 women and youths across dairy production, processing and marketing ahead of World Milk Day. School Food Procurement: In Spain’s Balearic Islands, a conference in Inca brought local producers and caterers together to boost use of local and organic products in school canteens under updated tender rules. Beef Price Shock: US beef hits record highs as drought-driven herd losses tighten supply, with analysts pointing to a shrinking cattle herd as the main driver behind steak and ground beef sticker shock. Poultry Trade Relief: China lifted HPAI-related poultry import restrictions for 17 US states, potentially reopening export volumes under a regionalization deal. Food Safety & Consumer Risk: Tunisia’s watermelon scare after a poisoning incident was dismissed by health authorities, but guidance stresses hygiene and safe handling once fruit is cut. Market Access for Small Shops: South Africa’s Spaza Shop Support Fund update highlights progress on applications, verification and funding for qualifying spaza owners as part of broader food-safety and compliance efforts.

Ice Cream Shift in India: Kwality Walls is moving its full India portfolio to milk-based ice creams, with about half dairy-based this year and the rest by next year, as consumers increasingly favor dairy over palm-based “frozen desserts.” Food Prices Under Pressure: Tomatoes are up 40% in the US year over year, driven by crop yield swings plus higher shipping costs from the Iran war and tariffs on Mexican tomatoes—hitting restaurant operators’ budgets hard. Grain Storage Scrutiny (India): An investigation into India’s foodgrain silo “hub and spoke” modernization says an anti-monopoly safeguard was removed before contracts, with Adani-linked firms reportedly expanding their share. Dairy Ingredient Boom (Ireland): Irish exporters are positioned to benefit from a sharp rise in whey protein isolate prices, boosted by sports nutrition and GLP-1-driven demand for high-protein powders. Supply Chain Stress (India): The West Asia crisis is described as an energy-driven shock that raises fuel, fertilizer and freight costs, threatening food security—especially for women, youth and farmers. Retail Fresh Focus (South Africa): Pick n Pay is refocusing on fresh food as its top growth driver, while also rebuilding baby, beauty and pet ranges using its existing store network. Food Safety/Operations Watch: A Longview, Washington-area packaging plant faced a major tank rupture and chemical spill, raising questions about production and shipments.

Sustainable Protein R&D: Imperial’s White City Campus opened labs for the Bezos Centre for Sustainable Protein, aiming to make sustainable proteins cheaper and scalable, with a Microbial Food Hub to push fermentation and microbial approaches. Dairy & Farm Economy: Wisconsin kicked off June Dairy Month, spotlighting the state’s 1.3M dairy cows, 5,000 farms, and dairy’s $52.8B annual economic impact. Beef Pricing Pressure: Ireland’s beef sector faced fresh scrutiny after claims of “huge price-gouging,” with processors and retailers accused of widening gaps versus what farmers receive. Food Processing Infrastructure: Odisha’s BJD MP urged India’s food processing ministry to build a national mega food park in Koraput to unlock tribal agri value-addition. Pork Import Policy: The Philippines will consult hog raisers after raising pork import minimum access volume, aiming to balance consumer prices with local producer viability. Food Costs Watch: US tomato prices jumped ~40% year-on-year, blamed on war-linked logistics costs and tariff policy shifts. Food Safety/Industry Risk: A Kentucky caramel-color plant explosion was labeled “catastrophe waiting to happen” after safety and design missteps. Retail Supply Chain: Lidl’s 10th-year Kickstart program selected Irish suppliers Nua Naturals and iStil 38 for a September retail push.

Food Shock Watch: South Africa’s Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 bps, warning of a possible “food shock” as higher borrowing costs hit household spending while farmers already face rising fuel and input costs. El Niño & Fertiliser Strain: Myanmar rice growers say the Iran-linked fuel and fertiliser squeeze is making planting harder and more expensive, with El Niño risks adding pressure to already fragile harvest prospects. Trade & Supply Disruptions: With Strait of Hormuz tensions still in play, negotiators discussed extending a ceasefire and reopening modalities—an oil-route risk that can quickly translate into higher food and energy prices. Regulatory Push in Produce: Sri Lanka tightened agricultural export controls after EU regulators flagged excessive pesticide residues, requiring SL-GAP certification and authorised exporters for EU-bound fruits and vegetables. Dairy Expansion: Sri Lanka’s Pelwatte Dairy will invest Rs. 1.86bn to build a liquid milk plant, targeting flavoured milk and iced coffee-style beverages from 2027. Packaged Foods Deal: India’s AWL Agri Business licensed Shree Renuka Sugars’ “Madhur” brand to expand refined sugar sales via AWL’s distribution network. Cultivated Protein Enters DC: José Andrés’ Barmini will start serving Wildtype cultivated salmon in Washington, DC from June 3, as cultivated meat faces growing consumer and regulatory debate. Hospitality VAT Relief: The UK’s “Great British Summer Savings” cuts VAT on some children’s menus and family activities to 5% for summer, aiming to lift restaurant footfall. Food Safety Training: Penn State Extension is running ServSafe food safety manager courses in June for restaurant and food service managers. Eid Retail Boost (Qatar): Qatar expects a strong Eid Al Adha lift for groceries and hospitality-linked retail as footfall rises ahead of the holiday.

Ocean Economy & Governance: A new look at the “blue economy” says ocean activity has surged, but governance is fragmented, leaving food and livelihoods exposed when enforcement, safety, and environmental tracking don’t connect. Urban Data & Policy: India’s urban measurement systems are criticized for patchy, outdated, and uneven data, which can skew resilience funding and what gets prioritized. Nigeria Fuel Pricing: Dangote Petroleum cut diesel ex-depot prices to N1,600/litre from N1,800 as imported fuel arrivals intensify competition across the downstream chain. Ag Finance Fight: A civil society coalition at AfDB meetings urged a shift away from industrial factory farming toward community-led agroecology. Food & Nutrition Campaigns: Nigeria launched a “Choose Milk” push to help families distinguish real milk from creamers. EU Trade Pressure: EU commissioners are set to discuss possible restrictions on Chinese imports amid “China Shock 2.0” concerns, including in food-related categories. Inflation Hits Food Budgets: South Africa’s central bank raised rates to 7% as fuel and food costs feed inflation. Reformulation Demand: ADM highlighted fast-moving reformulation needs, investing to expand its North America innovation capacity. Retail/Restaurant Reality: UK fast-casual chain Leon exited administration after closing 23 sites, leaving 43 restaurants. Food Safety & Consumer Trust: A Slim Tide alert warns of unauthorized third-party sellers using deceptive marketing. Agriculture Risk: The Philippines warned El Niño could cut rice output by up to 700,000 MT, raising food security stakes.

Agri-innovation Link-Up: AgSphere and EIT Food are teaming up to connect Canadian agri-food start-ups with Europe’s networks, buyers and investment, starting with a Canadian delegation to EIT Food’s Next Bite in Warsaw. Regenerative Push: A coalition of 40 food and agriculture firms backed the SAI Platform’s Regenerating Together Programme, aiming to scale regenerative practices across ingredient supply chains with shared impact targets. Menu Meets Market Reality: Mad Greens is overhauling 80% of its menu with 20 new craveable, “better-for-you” items, signaling that health claims alone aren’t enough in fast casual. Trade Talks With Food Stakes: India and Canada reaffirm a USD 50B trade goal and push CEPA talks in Toronto, with business leaders focused on sector cooperation. Food Price Pressure: U.S. grocery inflation risks intensifying as El Niño and Iran-linked disruptions add to already rising costs. Food Safety & Compliance: The FDA added thousands of Philips interventional imaging systems to recall lists over tube-cooler cooling issues that can trigger low-dose modes. Labor Tension in Cocoa: Kakao union-management talks collapsed, setting up a potential first-ever strike over wages and bonus structures.

Humanitarian Logistics: Brazil’s Air Force will fly food supplies from Santa Cruz de la Sierra to La Paz to ease shortages from Bolivia’s three-week roadblocks, coordinated by Brazil’s foreign affairs and agrarian ministries. Agri-Policy & Value Chains: India’s DoNER minister launched Tripura’s “Mission Queen Pineapple” to push GI-tagged fruit from farming through processing, branding and exports. Affordability Pressure: South Africa’s SARB rate decision looms as households already face rising inflation and may struggle with higher food and living costs. Food Safety in Schools: South Africa is urged to tighten safeguards in school nutrition, citing hygiene, storage and monitoring gaps that could spread contamination. EU Regulation Update: EU member states agreed on “Omnibus X” to simplify pesticide rules and enable more drone-based targeted spraying while keeping food and feed safety standards. Retail & Dining Shakeups: Clover Food Lab will close all 11 Boston-area restaurants, blaming inflation and thin margins. Circular Economy in Food: Canada’s Protein Industries Canada backs a project turning brewers’ spent grain into new high-value ingredients via Terra and Great Western Brewing. Trade & Industry: Thailand’s THAIFEX-ANUGA ASIA opened with a focus on emerging brands and alternative proteins, aiming for major trade value.

Food Safety Recall: Morrisons pulled Savers Cashews after fears packets may contain glass, issuing a customer recall for specific best-before dates and urging refunds. Nutrition & Standards: Egg Farmers of Canada rolled out its Egg Quality Assurance mark in McDonald’s Canada ads, pushing tighter quality signals into mainstream menus. Livestock Research: Ontario opened a $15.5M beef research centre at the University of Guelph to boost health, welfare and productivity for beef farms. Packaging Push: Food & Consumer Products of Canada endorsed the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s “New Plastics Economy,” aiming to cut plastic waste without raising safety or costs. Agriculture Under Pressure: A CSIRO-backed South East Queensland food system strategy calls for coordinated planning to protect supply chains as climate volatility and population growth intensify. Market Demand Signals: India’s health-food brand Alpino hit Rs 100cr revenue, betting on clean-label, high-protein growth. Soft Power via Food: Malaysia’s culinary diversity is being pitched as a tool for tourism and talent development.

Fuel-and-food squeeze: BDO Unibank warns the Middle East conflict could keep pushing up oil, inflation, rates, and a weaker peso in the Philippines—raising transport and food costs. Policy pressure on staples: The Philippine Competition Commission told rice importers to stop sharing sensitive info while a P50/kg import price cap runs for 30 days. FDA food safety alert: USDA FSIS issued a public health warning for beef kofta at The Kebab Shop after an E. coli O157:H7 outbreak link; the chain pulled the item from menus. Biopharma pivot: Eli Lilly is buying three vaccine developers for up to nearly $4B, signaling a bigger push into infectious disease. Agri investment push: Kenya plans Ksh100B in green/climate bonds by 2027 to fund solar cold chains and regenerative farming. Tech meets farming: Oregon’s Canopii is pitching “franchiseable” robotic greens farms to tackle aging farm labor. Retail inflation watch: Loblaw’s report ties higher food prices to gasoline and seasonal pressures.

Antitrust Watch (Philippines): The Philippine Competition Commission is warning rice traders to make independent decisions after a ₱50-per-kilo ceiling on imported five-percent broken rice—urging traders to avoid sharing sensitive info like prices, quantities, and import volumes while it sets up a transparent compliance framework with the rice importers’ group. Food Policy (Philippines): The Philippine Chamber of Food Manufacturers pushes regulators toward science-based, practical rules with real consultation as nutrient profiling, front-of-pack labeling, and product registration proposals move forward. Rice Market Power (Philippines): Former House Speaker Martin Romualdez backs restoring National Food Authority powers to intervene in rice markets, citing price instability and warehouse congestion. Dining & Innovation (Global): South Africa’s dining scene is leaning into “culinary roots” and street-food couture, while a new limited-time ramen crossover in Manila signals how brands are using collaborations to drive foot traffic. Honey Supply Gap (Sri Lanka): Sri Lanka’s honey output is far below demand, with officials calling for modern training to scale beekeeping beyond small, fragmented producers.

EU Packaging Crackdown: Spain’s hospitality sector is bracing for an EU ban on single-use plastic condiment sachets (ketchup, mayo, vinegar, etc.), starting 12 August—forcing restaurants and bars to shift to refillable dispensers, reusable containers, or paper options. Food Safety Push: The Philippines’ Bureau of Plant Industry is seeking P1.5B to build food safety labs and expand rice quality testing, aiming to tighten compliance on contaminants, residues, and rice standards. Trade Rules Under Pressure: The Philippines urged APEC to resist “arbitrary” non-tariff measures and keep markets open, warning that such barriers are raising export costs for most countries. Rural Livelihoods: South Africa received 3.5M FMD vaccine doses from Argentina to curb an outbreak, while Saudi REEF says it has backed 92,000+ rural beneficiaries with SAR 2.4B since 2019. Market Demand Shift: Brazil’s food and beverage output rose 2.9% in March, with food (+2.7%) and drinks (+3.3%) leading growth.